Exit polls are once again in the spotlight. This time around Congress was favored to make a clean sweep in J&K and Haryana, but trends and results are showing that BJP forming the government in Haryana.
According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), BJP is leading with wins in 50 constituencies in Haryana and 29 in J&K, while Congress is trailing behind in both regions. This morning, early trends highlighted that Congress was leading.
This has once again raised serious questions about the accuracy and reliability of exit polls. Back in June 2024, inaccurate exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP in the Lok Sabha election but the Bharatiya Janata Party had to form a coalition government as it didn’t have a majority. And it saw the rise of the Congress-led INDIA bloc.
Also Read: Maldives Turns To India For Help After Moody’s Downgrades Island’s Credit Rating
What Are Exit Polls
An exit poll is a survey conducted on the day of the election at various places across the country wherein voters are asked what party they voted for or their preference and the issues they want to be addressed.
In recent decades, because of social media politics and disinformation are being spread easily. And media platforms have difficulty in churning out the truth from the inaccuracies thus, more focus on trending and people’s opinions that might get them high TRPs.
Television channels for viewership air premature predictions before the conclusion of voting, thus inaccurate exit polls. According to the ECI rules and regulations, television or radio broadcasts should refrain from discussing election-related matters until such results are formally announced by the Election Commission of India. Such results are carried with a clear disclaimer that they are unofficial incomplete, or partial results or projections which should not be taken as final results.
The ECI has also failed to take action on those violating the same.
Also Read: Congress Leads In J&K. BJP In Haryana: Assembly Elections 2024
Inadequate Representation and Surveys Impact Exit Polls
Prof Sanjay Kumar, Co-director of the Lok Niti program at the Center for the Study of Development Societies (CSDS), said exit polls in India often fail because the sample size and demographic representation are not adequate. He highlighted that voters from rural areas, women, and minority groups are often underrepresented in these surveys.
And in regions like J&K and Haryana, rural constituencies play a major role in determining the electoral outcome. As such, the lack of accurate representation can skew the results. Furthermore, many voters are hesitant to share their true voting preferences due to political violence, lynching, and community influence.
